Latest Wisconsin Recall Polls Continue to Show Dead Heat; Turnout Will Decide Race

With just five days remaining until Election Day, the latest polls continue to show an airtight race between Tom Barrett and Scott Walker as both sides gear up to turn out their voters next Tuesday. Polling released yesterday by Lake Research Partners shows the race to be a dead head at 49-49, just the latest in a series of recent polls to show Walker inching below the critical 50% threshold and Barrett steadily climbing. (LINK, LINK, LINK)

These latest polls also show Barrett solidifying his lead amongst Independent voters, with a solid 5-7 point lead across the gamut of surveys.

Also yesterday, Marquette University Law School released the latest in a series of flawed public polls, a data set with numerous problems which render its results nearly meaningless. Among its flaws:

  • The data is old, taken before last Friday night’s debate in which Barrett offered a commanding performance, and since which Walker has experienced many bad news cycles, particularly on the topic of the ongoing John Doe investigation
  • The poll leans significantly conservative, skewing results by between 5 and 8 points in Walker’s direction
  • Data from crosstabs shows widely inaccurate—nay, impossible—demographic breakdowns, including Walker winning 18% of Democrats (!) and leading Barrett amongst Independents by 15. (!!!)

Even accounting for the flawed public polling, the trend lines in the latest poll tracking data show a rising Tom Barrett and a falling Scott Walker. Looking at those trend lines with 6 days remaining, it’s now clear why Walker’s campaign has desperately pushed the “It’s Over” narrative for weeks, and is now resorting to some of the most despicable tactics imaginable in the final days.

One Response to “Latest Wisconsin Recall Polls Continue to Show Dead Heat; Turnout Will Decide Race”

  1. […] recall election day in Wisconsin. Polling shows that Gov. Walker could lose his job — despite outspending his opponent by almost 8-1, […]

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